Summer has officially packed her bags for another 9 months and headed south. Autumn is upon us, with the wonderous colours of nature ushering in the final quarter of 2023.
In May’s issue, I introduced the Wall Street mantra, “sell in May and go away”. The idea behind this loose suggestion is that investment market activity is squelched as summer takes over our attention, hence applying downward prices on investment assets. I’m neither arguing for or against this reasoning. I don’t think there’s enough evidence to suggest this is a steadfast custom, though I can’t dispute the logic behind the thinking either.
In any case, with summer having skipped town and investors back to full tilt investing, it’s worth noting the sentiment that has been hauled back to the market trenches. Who’s in control? Those with euphoric buying demeanors? Or those with cynical selling moods?
What a wonderful and endless tug-of-war that draws us to the investing realm. It’s the bulls on one end and the bears on the other, duking it out relentlessly, in both macro and micro senses, to define the convictions of the economic hive. It’s another form of voting with our dollars, selecting winners and condemning losers. Or, at least, that’s how a free-market would work.
Back to our current reality. As investors pulled up their chairs, booted up their terminals and sharpened their pencils, the results speak louder than words, with September’s numbers leaning more prevalently to the bears’ side. This does not suggest all out doom and gloom. It’s foolhardy to believe that there ever is an absolute victor between the bulls and bears. The market scale never touches the floor, on either side. For now, there’s more weight on the bear’s side, though.
We must also keep in mind that the investment markets are a giant labyrinth of money flowing in, out and swirling all around, finding different nooks and crannies to fill and vacate. While the bears may dominate certain zones of the labyrinth, preventing money from flooding in, there are other corners where the bulls hold steadfast, ushering in tides of money flow. So, until such a time that the maze is sucked dry of all its monetary ripple, opportunities will abound. Our job is to withdraw from areas the bears are blitzing and move to zones charged by the bulls. That’s notwithstanding those looking for shorting opportunities, of course. But I digress.
Not to be outdone, we in Canada have our own mantra variation – “buy when it snows, sell when it goes”. Perhaps it’s because we appreciate that, as bears hibernate in winter, bulls are given near free rein to chase out the markets’ red. Besides, investors have not much else to do when snowed in but work the markets into a mania with their keyboards.
Thankfully, lasting snowfall has yet to make its mark this year. Until it does, we will hold tight in assessing the usefulness of this claim in 2023. That said, it should never be one to dictate our investment decisions. Rather, it’s a quirk worth figuring in an overall assessment.
How can anyone find the discipline of investing boring? It is a tremendous daily astonishment of the mind, complimented by a dash of adventurous soul searching from time to time too. There is no time for dull moments in this domain.
I recognize that for some, that sounds overwhelming and disquieting. Just as I leave rollercoaster riding to other thrill seekers, you would rather leave the investing tumult to someone else. If you’re looking for a professional money manager to defer such responsibility to, connect with us to learn more about our approach and thinking.
All My Best,
Adrian Harasymiw Investment Advisor Pinnacle Sovereign Investments of ACPI
P.S. To review the September market numbers or download a PDF copy of this commentary, check out the Monthly Market Pulse page on our website.